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Research

Working papers and active projects

Research by Tim Dobermann on AI, climate adaptation, energy markets, structural transformation, and public finance.

My research covers development, environmental, and AI economics, with a focus on energy systems, climate adaptation, structural transformation, and new technologies in low- and middle-income countries.

Fields Development economics Environmental & energy economics AI & technology

Working papers

Theory · AI and development

AI and the Ladder of Development

Tim Dobermann

Develops a small open-economy model in which frontier AI can raise current productivity yet slow capability accumulation by reallocating labour toward weak-learning local services.

Working paper

Climate adaptation · India

Human Capital, Mobility, and the Unequal Effects of Climate Change

Tim Dobermann

Examines how human capital creates mobility across sectors and locations as a channel for climate adaptation, combining a historical schooling expansion in India with a spatial model of structural change.

Working paper IGC project page Policy brief

Energy markets · Pakistan

The Economic Costs of Lopsided Contracts: Evidence from Power Purchase Agreements in Pakistan

With Faraz Hayat and Sugandha Srivastav

Builds a new database on power purchase agreements to study how asymmetric information and regulatory capture shape electricity prices and productive misallocation.

Working paper

Field experiments · Energy · Pakistan

Pushing on a String? Price and Enforcement Interventions in Pakistan’s Power Sector

With Robin Burgess, Michael Greenstone, Faraz Hayat, and Usman Naeem

Uses two randomised experiments with government to estimate how electricity payments and theft respond to price incentives and norm-based enforcement.

Working paper IGC project page

Structural transformation · South Korea

Deciphering the Miracle on the Han: How South Korea Escaped Poverty and Transformed its Economy

With Oriana Bandiera, Ignacio Bañares Sanchez, Robin Burgess, Jay Euijung Lee, Jeongkyung Won, and Hyunjoo Yang

Uses newly digitised historical microdata to study the roles of industrial policy, rural development, and infrastructure in South Korea’s rapid transformation.

In progress IGC project page

Spatial economics · Energy · Ghana

Electricity, Agglomeration, and Industrialisation in Ghana

With Ignacio Bañares Sanchez and Niclas Moneke

Estimates how the allocation of electricity outages affects firm productivity, entry, and industrial agglomeration across space.

In progress IGC project page

Active projects

Ethiopia · Field experiment

Smart meters and firm performance

A randomised evaluation of how smart meters affect reliability, utility revenue, electricity theft, and SME performance.

IGC project →

Ethiopia · Energy access

The diffusion of solar in rural economies

Mapping how market structure, intermediaries, and spatial frictions shape off-grid solar coverage, prices, and adoption.

IGC project →

Pakistan · Public finance

Customs evasion and state capacity

Evaluating faceless assessment and risk-management reforms intended to improve customs efficiency and detect under-invoicing.

IGC project →

Pakistan · Social protection

Replacing energy subsidies with targeted transfers

Using linked administrative data to study better targeting and delivery of household energy support.

IGC project →

Work in progress

  • Randomising Anti-Theft Technologies: Experimental Evidence on Aerial Bundled Cables — energy and state capacity
  • Price Relief under Nonlinear Electricity Tariffs: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan — public finance and energy
  • Optimal Spatial Policy with Local Demand Effects — spatial economics
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© 2026 Tim Dobermann

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